Nate Silver has made a name for himself as the data wizard of election forecasting. Starting with his famed blog, FiveThirtyEight, Silver rose to prominence by accurately predicting the 2008 election, correctly calling 49 out of 50 states.

This cemented his reputation as a go-to guy for political predictions. His method combined polling data with statistical models, creating a more nuanced look at election outcomes.

But his track record hasn’t always been flawless. In 2016, Silver predicted Hillary Clinton had a solid chance of winning, though, to his credit, he gave Trump a better shot than most mainstream pundits at the time. Despite Clinton leading in national polls, Trump’s surprise victories in key swing states threw a wrench into most forecasts, including Silver’s.

Since then, Silver’s approach has remained cautious, emphasizing the inherent uncertainty in predicting elections. His forecasts often remind us that probability isn’t destiny—meaning an underdog still has a chance. And that brings us to the current race, where his model is showing Trump as the slight favorite.

From Nate Silver:

Rather, it displays the probability that Trump will win the Electoral College — which is about 55 percent in our forecast, compared to about 45 percent for Harris…
As you can see from the forecast chart, Harris’s odds have declined slightly over the past two weeks, as she’s gone from roughly a 55/45 favorite to a 45/55 underdog.
Trump’s Electoral College Advantage

According to the latest from FiveThirtyEight, Trump now holds a 55% probability of winning the Electoral College. Yes, that’s right—Trump is now the front-runner in this chaotic political landscape. Kamala Harris, previously ahead, has seen her numbers dip, making this race tighter than ever. The model shows Harris with about a 45% chance of victory, making it what many would call a “toss-up.”

While some might assume these odds suggest Trump is headed for a landslide, that’s not what Silver’s model says. Instead, this indicates a neck-and-neck race likely to come down to razor-thin margins in battleground states. There’s only about a 5% chance that either candidate will blow the other out of the water by ten or more points in the popular vote. So, while the left might still be clinging to hopes of an overwhelming victory, the numbers tell a different story—one where Trump could very well come out on top.

Harris Slipping in Polls

So, why is Harris falling behind? There are a few reasons. First, her convention bounce wasn’t quite as strong as expected. While she did get a boost, it wasn’t enough to significantly shift the odds in her favor. The model predicted a 2-point bounce, but Harris only improved her standing by a measly 1.5 points. This slight difference has been enough to knock her off her perch as the favorite.

Then there’s the Kennedy factor. Harris took another hit with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out and endorsing Trump. While Kennedy wasn’t exactly a powerhouse candidate, his departure from the race, coupled with his support for Trump, pulled some votes away from Harris.

Lastly, Harris has been struggling in key states like Pennsylvania, which could be the tipping point for the entire race. Her polling numbers there have been weaker than expected, giving Trump an edge in the all-important Electoral College. And as we all know, winning the popular vote doesn’t guarantee a win—just ask Hillary Clinton.

Key Takeaways:

• Nate Silver’s model now gives Trump a 55% chance of winning the Electoral College.
• Harris’s convention bounce was underwhelming, contributing to her recent dip.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s exit and endorsement of Trump is further helping Trump’s odds.

Source: Nate Silver