Ever feel like you’re watching a tennis match, but instead of a fuzzy yellow ball, it’s the latest economic forecast whizzing past your head? One minute, the “experts” are shouting “Recession! Duck and cover!” and the next, well, let’s just say the narrative takes a sharp, and rather interesting, turn. It’s enough to make a sensible person wonder if some of these people are just throwing darts at a board blindfolded.

It’s a funny thing about leadership, isn’t it? The kind that doesn’t just follow the polls or the latest panicked headline. Sometimes, a leader has to make moves that have the commentariat clutching their pearls and the establishment scratching their heads. They might call it “unconventional,” or even “draconian” if they’re feeling particularly dramatic. But often, just often, there’s a bigger game afoot, a strategy that only becomes clear when the dust settles and the results start rolling in.

And speaking of results, it seems Wall Street giant JP Morgan just had one of those “aha!” moments. They’ve suddenly decided the U.S. isn’t quite as likely to tumble into a recession next year as they previously thought. In fact, they’ve dropped their odds of a 2025 recession from a rather gloomy 60 percent down to “below 50 percent.” A significant shift, you’d agree.

Now, here’s where it gets really interesting. Cast your mind back just a short while, to April. Back then, according to Fortune magazine, JP Morgan was singing a very different tune. They were reportedly “caught off guard” by what they termed President Trump’s “extreme” tariff announcements, and it was those very tariffs that had them predicting that 60 percent chance of recession. Oh, how the tables turn when a plan comes together. The catalyst for this newfound optimism? None other than President Donald Trump striking a crucial 90-day trade deal with China.

The core of this shift is perfectly captured by JP Morgan’s own Chief U.S. Economist, Michael Feroli.

From ‘The Post Millennial’:

“The administration’s recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the U.S. economy slips into recession this year. We believe recession risks are still elevated, but now below 50%.”

It seems those “draconian” measures had a purpose after all.

So, About Those “Draconian” Measures…

It’s almost as if applying pressure, standing firm, and then strategically negotiating can actually… work? Imagine that! This temporary deal sees most U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods drop from a hefty 145% down to 30% for the next three months, as reported by Fortune. That’s quite the “dialing down,” and it’s precisely the kind of decisive action that President Trump is known for. As the President himself put it, “They’ve agreed to open China, fully open China. And I think it’s going to be fantastic for China. I think it’s going to be fantastic for us, and I think it’s going to be great for unification and peace.”

The markets certainly seemed to agree it was fantastic. The stock market rallied with the Nasdaq leading the charge, up a cool 4%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also enjoyed handsome gains of 3.3% and 2.8% respectively. Beyond the market buzz, JP Morgan has also revised its U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 upwards, from a mere 0.2% to a more robust 0.6%. Even inflation, the bogeyman of recent times, is looking a little less scary, with the Consumer Price Index cooling to 2.3% in April, and JP Morgan expecting the personal consumption expenditures price index (a key Fed inflation gauge) to rise less than previously anticipated.

When Reality Writes a New Script for the Experts

It’s moments like these that offer a certain, shall we say, clarity. The very policies that were painted as reckless just weeks ago are now being cited as the reason for renewed economic optimism. While JP Morgan still notes some caution, particularly regarding employment later in the year, and has pushed back its forecast for when the Fed might resume rate cuts from September to December, the overall picture is one of a strategy bearing fruit. It’s a testament to a leader who understands leverage and isn’t afraid to use it to get the best deal for America.

This isn’t about gloating, mind you. It’s about observing how quickly the narrative can shift when strong, America-First policies are given a chance to work. It’s a reminder that sometimes, the “experts” are simply reacting to moves on a chessboard they don’t fully comprehend until the checkmate is in sight. President Trump continues to show he’s playing that game with a clear vision for American prosperity.

As this 90-day deal with China unfolds, it’s clear that the President’s approach to international trade—tough, strategic, and ultimately aimed at benefiting the American people—is once again proving its worth. The so-called “extreme” measures have paved the way for what looks like a significant win, and even the cautious analysts are starting to acknowledge the sunshine breaking through the clouds.

Key Takeaways:

• Trump’s China deal forces Wall Street to slash recession risk, proving his strategy.
• Expert alarm over Trump’s tariffs shifts to praise as his bold negotiations pay off.
• Trump’s America-First leadership turns economic challenges into national wins, silencing doubters.

Sources: The Post Millennial, Fortune